Monday, January 23, 2012

Changing Tides in the Sea of Politics

Newt Gingrich won South Carolina two nights ago, taking 40% of the vote while Romney took 28% and Santorum scraped by with 17%. It seems that the voting public is sane after all, and with such a stunning loss in ground, it seems likely that Santorum will bow out entirely within the next few weeks. Maybe he and Paul both, though I think Paul is likely to hang on to the bitter end.

Candidate-titans like Romney and Gingrich can duke it out all they want, but at the RNC they will need to court either Santorum or Paul - or both- if they want to win the nomination. Money may change hands, but more likely than not, Paul and Santorum would be able to secure policy deals from their more popular candidates in exchange for the delegates they've accrued so far. Good news for Paul - and for the rest of America; that policy deal could mean the difference between more deficit spending and a round of much-needed budget cuts and streamlining of government... in other words, a downsizing of government.

It takes 1,140 delegates to win the nomination at the Republican National Convention. Looking at the remaining candidates, it seems extremely likely that Newt Gingrich is going to win. For one, Romney's public image took a BATTERING from ads attacking his tenure at Bain capital. Why is his former CEO-status so controversial? Because Bain capital's style of doing business involved laying off as many workers, and downsizing companies as much as possible, in order to turn a profit. There's nothing wrong with that, on the face of it, but America needs someone who's more of a people-person. a leader. And Gingrich is the most qualified candidate to do that job.

There's another element to this controversy, which I have highlighted before: Romney doesn't DO politics. He openly disdains the way that Washington works, and sees the machinations of the Federal Government as frivolous. "Nothing wrong with politics", he has said more than once during this campaign, "Just not what Washington needs right now." We won't stand a rat's chance in hell of fixing our economy with a president who doesn't know how to interface with people on an individual level. Social skills, what Romney deems 'politics', are the most important thing that a President can have... otherwise we'll face four more years of the same godforsaken mess.

Speaking of Which, the State of the Union address is tomorrow night at 9pm EST. You can catch it here, and I'll do a running commentary on the speech. For once, I'm going to try and deliver it as-is: simple note-taking, with analysis later.





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